China Watch Blog has learnt that the Mainland China economy is expected to grow 9.2 percent in 2012, a slight drop from 9.4 percent this year, a university report forecast, raising concerns on slowdown and financial risks.
China’s economic expansion will continue the easing trend in the first half of next year, according to a report released by the Beijing-based Renmin University of China.
Growth of China’s gross domestic product (GDP) slowed to 9.1 percent in the third quarter of this year from 9.5 percent in the second quarter and 9.7 percent in the first quarter, as the government tightened monetary policy to contain inflation.
To rein in excessive price gains triggered by a credit boom, the government has made inflation control its top priority this year and adopted monetary-tightening measures. So far, the central bank has raised interest rates three times and hiked reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by six times this year.
The weakening growth has promoted the central bank to stand ready to fine-tone its monetary policy in an appropriate and timely manner to stay in line with economic changes.
The continuous economic slowdown will lead to a significant shift in the government’s macroeconomic policies, which will buoy the economy to avoid a double-dip recession, the report said.
China will face bigger slowdown in growth of real economy, rising risks in fictitious economy and worsening structure problems next year, it said.
The report said China inflation will see a marked softening next year, with full-year rise at 3.3 percent.
The nation’s consumer price index (CPI), the main gauge of inflation, increased 5.5 percent in October year-on-year, marking the slowest rise since May.
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